What on earth are science reporters doing promoting communism by “framing” the language of redistributive tax policy?One might hope that science should steer clear of political ideology. But look at this headline that appeared on both Science Daily and PhysOrg: “Want to influence support for redistributive tax policies? Choose your words carefully.” This sounds like naked advocacy for income redistribution, a key element of communism. The articles are unmodified echoes of a press release from the Association for Psychological Science, making these two leading science media sites complicit in advocating a communist principle.The article described supposed experiments that showed conservatives less likely to oppose income redistribution if the questions were phrased in terms of how much the rich made over the poor, versus how much less the poor made with respect to the rich. The pseudo-empiricism of this “experiment” was undermined by a clear goal of figuring out how to soften the opposition to redistribution.Redistribution of wealth is a core concept of communism. Perceiving the distance between poor and rich, Marx built his system as a means of taking from the rich and giving to the poor (income redistribution), with the revolutionary government taxed with punishing the bourgeousie to reward the proletariat, to achieve a utopia of equality of outcome. Capitalists, instead, believe in equality of opportunity. They believe that the free market motivates the entrepreneur to take risks with the hope of reward. The capitalist is further incentivized to please customers by lowering prices and creating better products. Wealth is not seen as a zero-sum game. Instead, the economy grows, the pie enlarges, and everyone benefits when free market competition creates wealth. Capitalism is built on initiative, responsibility and reward rather than class envy.The psychologists at Carnegie Mellon employed the euphemism “income inequality,” a phrase conjuring up class warfare. That the researchers were interested in softening opposition to the communist principle of redistribution of wealth is seen in the statement that the research suggested “a simple manipulation of language might be able to influence support for policies aimed at addressing income inequality.” But should scientists create tools of psychological manipulation to enable the efforts of political idealogues? (See 9/27/2012, “Will elitist science lead to mind control?“)One can conceive the experiment being framed in an opposite way. Anti-communist psychologists (if such a species exists) might frame their questions in terms of “equality of opportunity” and “personal responsibility” or freedom. They might use liberal subjects to measure how much the “framing” of the presentation changed their views. That the Carnegie Mellon psychologists did not do this is further evidence of a pro-communist bias in their construction of experiment. It undermines any pretense of objectivity. An objective experiment (assuming experiments on humans are valid in the first place) should have used equal numbers of conservative and liberal subjects (assuming such categories could be reliably identified), and had a control group. Even so, experiments on psychological manipulation raise serious ethical issues. This appears to be an experiment for identifying the most effective psychopolitical propaganda, not a scientific experiment.In another example of trying to influence the election, Live Science used scare tactics to suggest, “Could Romney Overturn Roe v. Wade?” If this were a simple neutral question answered with facts and probabilities, it might claim to be scientific. The language, however, described Roe v. Wade as “the Supreme Court decision that protected a woman’s right to have an abortion” instead of “the decision that denied an unborn baby’s right to life” (life being one of the inalienable rights deemed self-evident in the Declaration of Independence). In other words, the article scares the reader that Romney could reduce an alleged right, not that Obama is reducing a more fundamental right. Further evidence of advocacy is seen at the end of the article: “Pass it on: It’s possible Roe vs. Wade could be overturned if a new Supreme Court judge is appointed who takes a stance against abortion rights.” Should a science report tell its readers to pass it on? Should it use the phrase “abortion rights” instead of “right to life”?It’s pretty shocking that so-called scientists and science news outlets would promote leftist ideology, using leftist terms, just a few days before America’s presidential election where tax policy issues revolve around the validity of redistribution of wealth. This press release plays into the Obama campaign that employs class envy to promote taxing the “rich” more in the belief it will somehow help the middle class. The idea is that the rich (the job creators) should “pay their fair share,” a euphemism that overlooks the truth that they already pay the lion’s share of federal taxes, whereas many of the “poor” pay no taxes. A subjective term like “fair share” begs the question of what is fair. Is 75% fair? Is 90% fair? Taken literally, one could argue that the poor who pay no taxes are not paying their fair share. Paying a “fair share” could be a slogan for a flat tax, but instead is often used to make the tax system more progressive than it already is.The point is not the validity of either economic ideology. The issue is whether science reporters should be dallying in political advocacy at all. A survey of our entries in the Politics & Ethics Category shows that leftist ideology predominates in science reporting. “Science” (a term so broad it borders on the meaningless) has been co-opted as a tool to promote leftist ideology. Since PhysOrg and Science Daily acted blatantly as willing accomplices in a communist propaganda proposal, readers are tasked with remembering another free-market proverb, caveat emptor – let the buyer beware. (Visited 13 times, 1 visits today)FacebookTwitterPinterestSave分享0
Minister in the Presidents office Dr. Essop Pahad challenged local media to engage in fact-based journalism. The importance of portraying South Africa and the rest of the continent in a positive light ahead of the 2010 Fifa World Cup was the focus of the third 2010 National Communications Partnership Conference, recently held in Sandton, Johannesburg.Over 500 delegates attended the two-day meeting on 29 and 30 July 2008, aimed at empowering the media, public relations officers, government communicators and public to use every opportunity to show the world South Africa is ready to host a quality World Cup.When, on 15 May 2004 the 2010 World Cup host country was announced, President Thabo Mbeki promised the world South Africa would host the most successful tournament ever, saying, “We want to stage an event that will send ripples of confidence from Cape to Cairo.“We want to ensure that one day historians will reflect upon the 2010 Fifa World Cup as a moment when Africa stood tall and resolutely turned the tide on centuries of poverty and conflict,” he said.However, getting this message across in the run-up to 2010 is the challenge faced by stakeholders, especially in light of negative publicity on South Africa’s ability to deliver on its promises.The conference hosted speakers from key sectors involved in the organisation of the World Cup, including government, the 2010 local organising committee, police and security, as well as 2006 Fifa World Cup hosts, Germany.Co-chairperson of the National Communication Partnership, Nkwenkwe Nkomo, said the conference enabled African communicators to exchange ideas and practical suggestions on how to project a positive image of Africa to the world, using opportunities presented by the upcoming World Cup.“We wanted to achieve a coherent and action-oriented plan. The conference was also a way to build African solidarity and foster a climate that contributes to African growth and development,” he said.Role of SA mediaThe keynote address, delivered by Minister in The Presidency Dr Essop Pahad, placed emphasis on the responsibility of the local media to ensure the right messages are sent out to international audiences.“We see the hosting of the 2010 Fifa World Cup as an opportunity to demonstrate to the world the positive socio-economic developments in our country, our region and our continent. We are confident that global perceptions of Africa and South Africa will change in the run-up to 2010,” he said, adding that communicators needed to embark on a large-scale campaign to “highlight and accentuate the positive” without defending the shortcomings in preparations and in meeting deadlines.Pahad also challenged the South African media on the negative World Cup coverage from overseas. “Given the power of the media to shape perceptions we need to ask whether the media in our country has the capacity and independence of mind to question news items about our state of readiness which emanate from Reuters, the BBC and so on.”He tackled what he described as the tendency of South African media to simply perpetuate World Cup pessimism coming from international media. “We are aware that negative stories will, from time to time, emerge in the international media. But the critical question is will the media in South Africa simply parrot those stories or will they be discerning and dig beneath and undertake a critical analysis of what is being said?“This is not by way of saying that the media in South Africa ought not to be critical of shortcomings in our preparations – they must be critical, for in their responsible reporting they assist us as well.”Football’s mega reachChairperson of the local organising committee and owner of Orlando Pirates football club, Dr Irvin Khoza, spoke of the unifying power of football at the conference.Khoza assured delegates that South Africa was going to stage an event that would show the ability of sport to cut through race, class, cultures and language.According to Khoza, there are 1.2-billion people around the world connected to football in some way – from the players on the field, administrators, commentators, sports journalists and the fans. He says the sport has a way of connecting and uniting people, describing it as the “superior reach” of football.Khoza noted that in South Africa the Soweto Derby, an annual clash between two of South Africa’s biggest football teams – Kaiser Chiefs and Orlando Pirates, draws more television audiences than prime time news.He encouraged the media to shape a clear message to the world that South Africa is going to use the unifying power of soccer to stage a memorable event for all.City Press newspaper editor Kathu Mamaila called for the media to exercise responsible journalism. He asked: “What is it about us that we want the world to know and how do we become the information leaders when it comes to telling the world about the process of organising the World Cup?” He also discussed his thoughts on who South Africans are as a peopleMamaila encouraged journalists not to be extremist in their reporting, whether their bent was positive or negative. He said the role of the media was not to take a “see no evil, hear no evil” approach when it came to reporting matters on the World Cup.Echoing minister Pahad’s message, Mamaila said journalists should rather exercise responsible, objective, fact-based journalism. This, he said, could be achieved by reporting on all the shortcomings as they occur, but also by highlighting all the developments taking place.From glum to gleeDr Nikolaus Eberl, of the Nation of Champions initiative, gave delegates a picture of how Germany changed the way the world perceived it, by using powerful messages to tell a different story about the Germans ahead of the 2006 World Cup.“Two years before the World Cup, he said, things were not going well. Germans were described as a collectively depressed people, unemployment figures were at their highest, everything seemed to be going wrong.”His challenge was to find something within Germans that would unite them, cause them to turn their misery around and focus on what it meant to be German, but most importantly, prepare them for a prestigious world event in their home country.Eberl’s solution was to teach Germans that they were worth something. The campaign was called “From grumpy to happy” and images of smiling faces were seen on printed t-shirts worn by Germans during a series of organised outdoor concerts. This campaign presented the opportunity for communicators to convey the message to Germans that they were okay, that they had something to offer the world.Using positive representations was very crucial, Eberl said at the conference. He spoke of the power of the image of former president Nelson Mandela’s image as well as other African icons like Archbishop emeritus Desmond Tutu, Kenyan Nobel Peace Price winner Wangari Mathai, President Thabo Mbeki and liberation movement stalwarts like Walter Sisulu.Eberl assured South Africa that it had the potential to send across a powerful message of not only South Africa’s but Africa’s readiness to receive the world.His views were echoed by Themba Maseko, CEO of government’s communications arm, GCIS. Maseko addressed the recent xenophobic attacks on foreigners in South Africa and the negative perception of the country.He said it was important for the media to bring across the message that South Africa was ready to receive the world. “Xenophobia undermines the freedom that our fellow Africans will have [when attending the World Cup]. We must rally behind all African teams, as this will be an African World Cup.”He added that it was government’s intention to unite Africans through sport and that the World Cup was the perfect opportunity to do so.Selling Africa to the worldTim Modise, the local organising committee’s chief communications and marketing officer for 2010, pointed out that it’s crucial to highlight that South Africa is also ready to host the Fifa Confederations Cup in 2009.Modise stressed the importance of setting the agenda and using both sport and non-sporting events around the world to market the continent. He gave examples of the World Travel Market, which brings together different countries showcasing what they have to offer, and the 2008 African Cup of Nations held in Ghana earlier in 2008.Peter Mutie, chairperson of the Public Relations Society of Kenya, made the point that Africans should not sit back and be spectators as far as the image of Africa is concerned, but that Africa should use the opportunity afforded to it like the World Cup, to shape the world’s perceptions.Mutie emphasised five points that needed to be highlighted – he said that Africans were vibrant, energetic, capable, warm and the continent was “the place to be”. He said it must be stressed that African governments were committed to political stability, that Africa was competent and that it had the ability to draw people from across the social spectrum.Margaret Dingalo, chair of the marketing and communications cluster in the 2010 National Communication Partnership, made the point that Africa needed to sell as a holistic brand, and be positioned as a world leader. This, Dingalo said, would involve every country on the continent working on its image to show the world its real face.Useful linksThe movement for GoodGCISDr. Nikolaus EberlCity Press
China Southern Airlines has signalled further expansion in the Australian market as it inked a deal with Tourism Australia on Tuesday aimed at boosting marketing activities in China.A three-year memorandum of understanding was signed on Tuesday in of Adelaide shortly after the arrival of China Southern Airlines flight CZ663 from Guangzhou, the first direct commercial passenger flight between China and South Australia. Officials present at the ceremony included Tourism Australia managing director John O’Sullivan and China Southern chief executive and president Tan Wan Geng.Tan said he had great confidence in the Australian market. “Australia is a market we value highly where we still see opportunities to expand our operations further, as demonstrated by our decision to add Adelaide to our global network,” he said.The comments come less than two weeks after governments of both countries signed an open skies agreement lifting restrictions on operations between major cities. Expansion and new services by Chinese carriers have already helped make China Australia’s most valuable inbound market with almost 1.2 million visitor arrivals now worth about $A9billion a year. China Southern has increased capacity to Australia by 35 per cent in the past year, with 56 weekly services now operating between Guangzhou and Sydney, Brisbane, Melbourne, Perth and Adelaide, as well as Shenzhen to Sydney. “China Southern continues to invest significantly in its Australian network and in Australian tourism, O’Sullivan said in a statement. “The airline now carries a fifth of all Chinese arrivals into Australia, more than any other international carrier. As we approach 2017, the designated ‘Australia-China Year of Tourism’, we look forward to building upon this important partnership.’’Qantas, which has a partnership with China Southern, and Virgin Australia, which is 40 per cent Chinese owned, are also moving to increase services to China and take advantage of a growing cadre of Chinese tourists looking to travel overseas.Tourism Australia estimates that spending by Chinese visitors to Australia could rise to A$13 billion annually by 2020. It says Chinese visitors currently spend an average of $8,000 each on every visit to Australia, more than any other source market.
20 March 2012 The City of Johannesburg says it is busy clearing the backlog of complaints over billing issues, and has promised to settle new complaints within 30 days, after residents turned to South Africa’s Presidential Hotline for help on the issue. The Presidency met Johannesburg officials on Monday after its hotline received 8 000 complaints over billing problems in the city since April last year.“We came because we wanted to understand how the city is engaging with issues like the billing system – the system which has been an issue raised by residents,” Deputy Performance Monitoring Minister in the Presidency Obed Bapela told reporters after the meeting.“We know the numbers that were clocked in by our presidential hotline and the premier’s hotline were over 8 000. The city has already begun to engage and resolve almost 5 000 of those particular cases.”‘To see how the city is dealing with issues’Bapela said residents had approached the hotline to say they were unable to get satisfactory responses from the city.“So instead of responding to all of them individually, we felt that let’s come in and engage with the city in a corporate governance model to see where the city is and how they are dealing with issues.”He said most of the cases reported to the hotline included the finalisation of deceased estates, complaints on amounts to be paid, cut-offs and clearance certificates.66 000 billing queries by end of JuneCity of Johannesburg mayoral committee member Geoffrey Makhubo said the city would seek to resolve at least 66 000 billing queries by the end of June.June was the deadline it had set to attain stabilisation of the revenue system.“We are confident that we are on track. We still have backlogs of queries that we are dealing with,” Makhubo said.“Today’s problems should be solved today rather than adding on to the backlogs. So we are focused on the backlogs. New queries will be resolved in 30 days. That is our promise to the residents of Johannesburg.”The number 66 000 reflected the total number of outstanding billing queries at present.City to launch customer charterMakhubo said the city would launch a customer charter at the end of March.“That customer charter would bind us to certain service levels, certain standards and would articulate the rights and obligations of the city and articulate the rights and obligations of the customer,” he said.City officials and Bapela had a two-hour meeting on Monday which included a visit to the city’s customer relations centre.“We are quite satisfied as the presidency with the response given by the city … Some matters are beyond them,” Bapela said.“Unfortunately we arrived when the system was down … We spoke to a customer who said the usual waiting period is 15 minutes. We call on Joburg residents to raise their problems, but they should also pay for services.”‘Pay for your services’Local government and housing MEC Humphrey Mmemezi said after the meeting on Monday that the city was properly run.“There is no reason for the citizens of this city [Johannesburg] to have their stress level raised up … We are happy that the city is run properly. They are able to indeed report and account for what they are doing,” Mmemezi said.“If you want the services, we must indeed support the municipality, we must pay … The municipality must be supported, so start paying. With the municipality, the groceries and car payment must be the last.”Bapela said the presidency would also visit other municipalities to see what problems they faced.Sapa
Sixteen years: in that time South Africa will be a very different country if the goals of Vision 2030, as set out in the National Development Plan, are met. (Image: Cape Town World Design Capital) • South Africa could be swimming in opportunity• Join the 2014 South Africa Competitiveness Forum• South African economy improving• Active citizens build South Africa’s brand • Buy local to build South Africa’s economyRay MaotaSouth Africa’s National Development Plan (NDP), the road map to reach its Vision 2030 – will largely depend on the country’s competitiveness on an international scale. We examine how the two will intertwine to make South Africa a better country.Brand South Africa hosts the second annual South African Competitiveness Forum on 4 and 5 November with the expected outcome of being equipped to design communications, marketing, thought leadership platforms, and a range of other activities to create a truly competitive positioning for the country in international markets and domestically.The organisation explains that the forum is a strategic platform through which to consult and work with the government, business and civil society. The objective is to identify the competitive and reputational strengths and challenges faced by the nation brand.Through shared insights, Brand South Africa believes, actions can be decided on that may, if taken incrementally and systematically over time, contribute directly and substantially to improving the competitiveness and reputation of the country. Competitiveness and the NDPSixteen years: in that time South Africa will be a very different country if the goals of Vision 2030, as set out in the NDP, are met. The aim, among others, is to eliminate poverty and create 11 million jobs by 2030. “By 2030, we must be able to declare that no South African lives below a poverty line and we can fix that line,” Trevor Manuel, at the time the minister in the presidency for the National Planning Commission, wrote in the introduction to the NDP.Drafted by Manuel and 26 other commissioners, the ultimate goal of the plan is to reduce inequality by 2030, and it gives guidance on getting to this end point. It states: “South Africa can realise these goals by drawing on the energies of its people, growing an inclusive economy, building capabilities, enhancing the capacity of the state, and promoting leadership and partnerships throughout society.” The NDP identifies blockages and proposes direction, targets and timelines for developmental programmes and projects.Brand South Africa stresses another of its goals: to position South Africa as a key destination for foreign direct investment. “Research shows that as development levels increase, employment and vulnerability tends to spread more evenly across all sectors. South Africa’s increased competitiveness and improved reputation, domestically and internationally, will be critical to the success of the National Development Plan,” it says. South Africa and global competitivenessSouth Africa was ranked 54th in the Global Competitiveness Report 2014-2015, a decline from 53rd in 2013 and 52nd in 2012. Another report, the IMD Global Competitiveness Yearbook 2014, ranks South Africa 52nd for this year, based on major improvements in infrastructure.The results of the National Infrastructure Plan, which is related to the NDP, namely the roll-out of infrastructure, can be seen in the improvement in the country’s ranking in infrastructure in the World Economic Forum (WEF), as well as in the Ibrahim Index of African Governance this year, states Brand South Africa. It moved from 66 to 60 out of 148 countries, and from seven to three out of 52 countries, respectively. This means that the national investment in infrastructure is paying off in terms of competitiveness measures. What South Africa is doing rightAccording to the WEF report, South Africa is doing well in the following: quality of its institutions ranking 41st in the category, including intellectual property protection at 18th, property rights at 20th, and in the efficiency of the legal framework in challenging and settling disputes, which were ranked 13th and 12th, respectively. The high accountability of its private institutions was ranked second, further supporting the institutional framework. Furthermore, South Africa’s financial market development remains impressive, at a consistent third place.South Africa was ranked at 28th for efficient market for goods and services. Business sophistication and innovation, benefiting from good scientific research institutions, and strong collaboration between universities and the business sector in innovation, were also identified as points supporting competitiveness.But the country remains an economy of extremes. “This is illustrated in the breakdown of the components of the competitiveness ranking. South Africa ranks near the top of the global ratings in a number of factors. These mostly relate to the development of the financial sector and financial markets,” says Brand South Africa. What South Africa should improveAccording to recent global reports, South Africa’s strong ties to advanced economies, notably European markets, make it more vulnerable to their economic slowdown and may have contributed to the deterioration of its fiscal indicators.In the Global Competitiveness Report, performance in the macroeconomic environment dropped sharply from 69th to 95th. South Africa received low scores for the diversion of public funds, at 99th, and for the perceived wastefulness of government spending, at 79th. A more general lack of public trust in politicians, ranked at 98th, remained worrisome, and security continued to be a major area of concern for doing business, with the country coming in at 109th.Other challenges include: building a skilled labour force and creating sufficient employment; the health of the workforce was ranked 133rd out of 148 economies – the result of high rates of communicable diseases and poor health indicators more generally. The quality of the educational system in South Africa was considered to be very poor, ranking at 146th, with low primary and tertiary enrolment rates. It is with this in mind that Brand South Africa plans an education and skills workshop at the South African Competitiveness Forum. It will interrogate the reputational and competitiveness issues related to the nation’s performance in this sector.Labour market efficiency is also poor, and was ranked at 116th; hiring and firing practices were seen to be extremely rigid and were ranked at 147th; companies not being able set wages flexibly got the nation a ranking at 144th; and significant tensions in labour-employer relations resulted in a ranking in the category at 148th.With these figures in mind, Brand South Africa believes that raising educational standards and making the labour market more efficient will be critical in view of South Africa’s high unemployment rate. At present, this is more than 20%; the rate of youth unemployment is even higher, estimated at close to 50%.Brand South Africa will host its second South African Competitiveness Forum in Johannesburg on 4 and 5 November 2014 under the theme “Active citizenship and its role in changing the South African brand reality”. Top minds from business, government, civil society and the academic world will come together to discuss our position in the world, and uncover ways to give South Africa a competitive edge on the global stage. Click here to find out more. Follow the conversation on Twitter via #CompetitiveSA.
Cubs0.7C. GomezLF+1.6K. Schwarber+0.01.1 Dodgers1598101.898.5%26.5%2.2 Twins147574.522.214.171.124 CAUTIOUS BUYERSELO RATINGEXP. WINS PER 162 GAMESDIV. SERIES ODDSWORLD SERIES ODDSDOYLE NUMBER Brewers1.3Z. CozartSS+3.1O. Arcia+1.02.7 Blue Jays1494126.96.36.199.1 Brewers151282.864.2%4.3%1.3 Yankees0.9T. Frazier1B+2.3J. Choi+0.12.1 Astros2.2Y. DarvishSP+3.1M. Fiers+1.14.3 Orioles1474188.8.131.52.1 For most Major League Baseball teams, the trade deadline is a chance to step back and take stock of the franchise’s trajectory. Although only a small fraction of rumored deals actually end up happening, a team’s willingness to swap assets — as either a buyer or a seller — says a lot about where it is in the cycle between contending for a World Series and playing for the future.For a few teams, the choice has already been made. These are the clubs on the ends of the baseball spectrum: the bottom dwellers already committed to punting the present in order to stockpile young talent and the clear front-runners who can begin fine-tuning their playoff rosters in July.But the bulk of the league faces a fork in the road and doesn’t have the luxury of soul-searching with the trade deadline less than two weeks away. The decision to buy or sell is both critical — botched maneuvers can cripple a franchise for years — and further complicated by whether teams are getting a “rental” player (with an expiring contract) or someone who can help them for the next few years. But fear not, baseball general managers, we are here to help.A few years ago, my colleague Nate Silver and I developed a statistical framework for trade-deadline strategy: the Doyle Number (named for a certain pitcher the Detroit Tigers mortgaged their future to acquire at the 1987 deadline). Doyle represents the number of future wins a team should be willing to part with in exchange for adding an extra win of talent this season. So a Doyle of 1.00 means a team should be indifferent to buying or selling — a one-win improvement this year adds as much to its current World Series odds as a future win would add over the long term.1Specifically, its odds over the next six seasons. If its Doyle rises any higher, it should probably be buying (since wins this year are more valuable than future wins); any lower, and it should be selling.For example, the Cleveland Indians currently have a Doyle Number of 1.48. With a good (though not quite great) roster and decent (but not quite ironclad) division-series odds,2Doyle focuses on the division series rather than the wild-card playoff, because the latter’s single-elimination format truly is a crapshoot. they should probably be trying to add talent over the next few weeks to bolster their chances of returning to the World Series. Meanwhile, the New York Mets’ Doyle is 0.08; their injury-riddled talent base is mediocre, and they have very little shot at the division series, so they should be selling off anyone that isn’t nailed down.With those ground rules in place, here’s every team’s Doyle number as of July 16:3The only change I’ve made to the model for this season is that it now uses the future wins (per 162 games) implied by a team’s Elo rating to assess a team’s talent at the deadline, rather than its rest-of-season projected winning percentage from FanGraphs (which is slower to incorporate changes in a team’s play than Elo). Phillies143365.20.00.00.0 Giants147574.50.00.00.0 Rockies0.6J. BruceRF+2.0G. Parra+0.21.1 Red Sox1.6A. AvilaC+2.3C. Vazquez-0.24.0 Talent is an estimate of a player’s current projected wins above replacement (WAR) per 162 games.Sources: RosterResource, Baseball-Reference.com, FanGraphs, Tangotiger Expected wins are derived from the team’s current Elo rating.Source: FanGraphs Mets1503184.108.40.206.1 The Doyle topples one of the most common perceptions of the deadline: The team most in need of a trade is the team that is one bat (or one arm) away from making a postseason run. By contrast, Doyle shows that the the teams who should be most willing to buy are the teams having the best seasons — not teams merely on the cusp of the playoffs. It’s a consequence of how random the MLB playoffs are: When even the best teams have long odds of winning, there’s practically no amount of talent a team can add that will cause its World Series probability to hit diminishing returns.This year, the top Doyle teams are the historically dominant Los Angeles Dodgers and Houston Astros — and, to a lesser extent, the Indians, Washington Nationals and Boston Red Sox. With the possible exception of Houston, each team has at least one position where it can substantially improve, and Doyle indicates they should focus on shoring up those weaknesses in preparation for a World Series run.More interesting, however, are the clubs near the threshold between buying and selling. These are teams for whom there is less of a clear-cut direction to take — but some decision must be made, since any direction would add more total future championships than merely standing pat. One archetype for that group is the unexpected contender: Think of the Milwaukee Brewers, who find themselves in first place in the National League Central division despite a relatively unimpressive collection of talent. Milwaukee’s 1.26 Doyle suggests it should lean toward buying, since an improved core will become much more valuable in the postseason.The opposite model might be that of Milwaukee’s division rival, the Chicago Cubs: an expected favorite to whom Doyle gives a disappointingly low World Series probability. The defending champs are having a well-documented down year, and although they’re talented enough to have decent title odds if they make the playoffs, that’s far from guaranteed no matter what deadline moves they make. As a result, their 0.66 Doyle suggests they should lean toward punting on this season.The Cubs, however, don’t seem willing to give up just yet, trading for starter Jose Quintana last week. They weren’t necessarily wrong to do it, either; it’s important to remember that the Doyle Numbers above mostly apply to rental players. After I tweaked the model to account for the remaining years on Quintana’s contract,4Specifically, I gave Chicago 3.2 wins above replacement of talent this season — Quintana’s current talent level, per Tom Tango’s WAR projection system — with an annual half-win decline over each of the next three seasons. Quintana’s total four-year contribution to Chicago’s talent level (9.8 WAR) was then subtracted, spread evenly over the three seasons after his contract expires. Chicago’s Doyle for this specific trade became 1.31 — meaning it was probably worth it to give up top prospects in exchange for improving its talent base over multiple seasons.Those are exactly the kinds of extenuating circumstances a team in Chicago’s current situation needs in order to justify buying instead of selling. Any team with a Doyle north of 0.60 or so could probably do a similar calculation, which means 11 clubs — the Dodgers, Astros, Nationals, Red Sox, Indians, Brewers, Diamondbacks, Yankees, Rays, Cubs and Rockies — could reasonably call themselves buyers this season under the right circumstances.So we know who’s at the restaurant, and we know who’s on the menu — but what is everyone ordering? We can also use Doyle to build a trade deadline plan for each team, pairing them with players who fit a need and make sense given how realistic a club’s World Series chances are. For each of the 11 teams above, I gathered their current starters5The cutoff for pitchers was either the No. 4 slot in the rotation (for starters) or the setup man role (for relievers). and tracked how good each is this season, according to Tom Tango’s WARcel projections. I also pulled a list of deadline rental targets6So, expiring contracts only. from the excellent RosterResource.com, calculating their WAR talent as well. Multiplying a team’s Doyle Number by the difference in WAR talent between a rental target and its current starter at the same position, we came up with a “deadline index” that indicates how good of a match the player is for the team. After assigning duplicated targets to the team whose index for the player was highest, here are the best pairings between team needs and available players, according to Doyle: Pirates1496220.127.116.11.1 Red Sox154489.818.104.22.168 Marlins149422.214.171.124.1 Diamondbacks152084.6126.96.36.199 Astros1591100.399.724.62.2 Doyle’s deadline shopping listThe top targets for each potential buyer based on deadline index, which is the difference in talent between an available ‘rental’ and the team’s current starter at his position, multiplied by the team’s Doyle Number Rays0.9C. MaybinLF+1.8S. Peterson+0.21.4 Tigers1489188.8.131.52.1 Rangers152585.714.7%1.3%0.4 Where each team stands at the deadlineTeams ranked by Doyle Number — how many future wins of talent a team should trade away to acquire 1 win this season White Sox146772.71.10.00.0 TOP TARGETCURRENT STARTER FOR TARGET POSITION Padres144467.60.20.00.0 Braves1478184.108.40.206.1 Cubs153587.822.02.30.7 Nationals155191.593.812.81.9 Indians1.5J.D. MartinezRF+2.4T. Naquin+0.33.1 Athletics147875.21.30.00.0 SELLERSELO RATINGEXP. WINS PER 162 GAMESDIV. SERIES ODDSWORLD SERIES ODDSDOYLE NUMBER Reds146371.80.70.00.0 TEAMDOYLEPLAYERPOSTALENTPLAYERTALENTDEADLINE INDEX Obviously, here are other layers of complexity involved in actually pulling off these deadline deals, including the quality of the trading team’s farm system, which of its existing players might return from injury before the playoffs, and the possibility of a contract extension with the player being acquired. But the general idea of Doyle is that it provides a flexible framework for trade-deadline decisions, based on how valuable it is to add or shed current talent with an eye on the future.Keep that in mind as we watch whatever deals unfold over the next couple of weeks. A team’s Doyle Number is a rough guideline, the starting point for thinking about trade possibilities. What happens after that is a combination of reading the market, picking the right moment to strike and then making endless phone calls until that forgettable middle reliever is finally yours.Check out our latest MLB predictions. Cardinals150781.610.20.60.3 Nationals1.9J. DysonLF+2.7C. Heisey-0.45.8 Rays151583.5220.127.116.11 Mariners151318.104.22.168.3 Dodgers2.2A. ReedRP+1.9P. Baez+0.82.3 Indians154489.822.214.171.124 D-backs1.0C. GrandersonLF+2.0D. Descalso+0.02.0 Angels1502126.96.36.199.1 SOLID BUYERSELO RATINGEXP. WINS PER 162 GAMESDIV. SERIES ODDSWORLD SERIES ODDSDOYLE NUMBER Rockies150480.9188.8.131.52 Royals149578.9184.108.40.206 Yankees153186.9220.127.116.11
OSU redshirt junior quarterback Cardale Jones (12) runs with the ball during a game against Virginia Tech on September 7 in Blacksburg, Virginia. OSU won 42-24. Credit: Samantha Hollingshead / Photo EditorDespite a shaky start so far in 2015, redshirt junior quarterback Cardale Jones will remain Ohio State’s starter when the Buckeyes take the field Saturday to face off against Western Michigan, OSU coach Urban Meyer announced Wednesday after practice. Jones has started all three of OSU’s games so far, but he has yet to look like the same player that guided the Buckeyes to a national title last season after then-redshirt freshman J.T. Barrett got hurt against Michigan on Nov. 29. The Cleveland native has twice been benched in favor of Barrett, including last weekend against Northern Illinois after Jones led OSU to just three points in five possessions while throwing two first-quarter interceptions. Even though Barrett came in and helped lead the Buckeyes to a 20-13 victory, Meyer said he has yet to do enough to swipe the starting spot from Jones.“(Jones) was the quarterback of the team when we finished the season, he was the quarterback during spring practice and he finished training camp as the starting quarterback,” Meyer said. “To replace him, the other guy’s gotta pass him up. Either (on the practice field) or in the games. That hasn’t happened.” Meyer admitted that the battle between the two is close. However, the coach stressed that all the blame for the quarterbacks’ poor play can’t be placed on them. “Quarterbacks are a product of those around them. We all have to do a better job,” Meyer said. “It’s not (Jones). The offense right now is in a funk.” Redshirt junior wide receiver Michael Thomas said the offense will be fine moving forward, adding he has faith in whoever starts.“I trust J.T. out there or Cardale,” Thomas said.Jones and the Buckeyes are set to be back in action against Western Michigan on Saturday at Ohio Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m.As for beyond the upcoming game, Meyer said Jones would be “the guy.”“Unless he doesn’t perform well,” he added.
Arsenal boss Unai Emery is aiming to write a new chapter of the club’s history against top-six clubs ahead of their game with LiverpoolThe Gunners won just once against Manchester City, Manchester United, Tottenham and Liverpool across nine matches last season.But Emery, who’s currently enjoying a 13-game unbeaten run at Arsenal, is determined to change that – starting with Liverpool this Saturday.“We want to write a new history,” Emery told reporters on Arsenal.com.“Our new history is with the present and also with our players and with our quality.“I believe in our players and this project and we are starting this project very positively and in our mentality.“We need to improve but each match gives us a lot of information on how we develop and I trust in our players.”The Spanish coach lost to City and Chelsea in his opening two games in charge of Arsenal.Daniel Farke, From mid-table in the Championship to the Premier League Manuel R. Medina – September 14, 2019 Norwich City manager, Daniel Farke, has taken his team from the middle of the table in the English Championship to play with the big boys in the Premier League.“These two matches are so far and also they are so near, so close,” said Emery.“Tomorrow is similar because Manchester City, Chelsea and Liverpool are in front of us in the table and now we want to compete against them and this test.“I think, is a very important test but I trust in our players, I trust in our way. The result tomorrow is very important.“But first I want to show them, to show you and to show everybody our best mentality in the game.“I know if we have a very big mentality in the game and a very big performance individually and collectively, and also we need some luck, then I think we can win.Arsenal are in fourth place in the Premier League table and just four points shy of leaders City and Liverpool.The Gunners will host the latter at the Emirates on Saturday with kick-off at 18:30 (CEST).
Posted: December 4, 2018 December 4, 2018 Duncan Hunter Sr. remembers late President George H.W. Bush 00:00 00:00 spaceplay / pause qunload | stop ffullscreenshift + ←→slower / faster ↑↓volume mmute ←→seek . seek to previous 12… 6 seek to 10%, 20% … 60% XColor SettingsAaAaAaAaTextBackgroundOpacity SettingsTextOpaqueSemi-TransparentBackgroundSemi-TransparentOpaqueTransparentFont SettingsSize||TypeSerif MonospaceSerifSans Serif MonospaceSans SerifCasualCursiveSmallCapsResetSave SettingsSAN DIEGO (KUSI) – Former congressman Duncan L. Hunter worked alongside the late President George H.W. Bush.Hunter discussed the life & legacy of the 41st President on Good Morning San Diego. KUSI Newsroom Categories: Local San Diego News, National & International News, Politics FacebookTwitter KUSI Newsroom,
Facebook0TwitterEmailPrintFriendly分享Homer Electric Association, (HEA) members will see an increase in their monthly bills beginning on Sunday, July 1. According to a release, HEA proposes an increase to the Cost of Power Adjustment (COPA) rate from $0.06701 per kilowatt hour (kWh) to $0.07270 kWh, which is an increase of 8.49%. The average residential member who uses 550 kWh/month will see a $3.31 increase in theirbill. The primary driver of the increase is HEA’s greater reliance on its higher priced baseload gascontract going forward to fuel generation, compared to lower priced gas spot market opportunitiesthat HEA has been able to act upon year to date. The COPA is adjusted on a quarterly basis and primarily reflects the cost of natural gas used to generate power for HEA members. This rate increase is effective to all HEA members.